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Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries
Gavrilenco, Nicolae ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER THESIS Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries Author: Bc. Nicolae Gavrilenco Supervisor: doc. Roman Horvàth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2012/2013 Abstract In this research we have analyzed the financial system as it is today, describing the implications financial innovation had and the impact of the recent financial crisis. We tried to understand the nature of the financial stress and its measures. In the context of world financial integration it was also necessary to have a review upon the financial stress transmission channels from developed to emerging countries, determining the linkages and their measures. We employed a structural VAR model to determine whether there is empirical proof of financial Stress transmission from developed to emerging countries and see if financial integration represents the decisive factor in financial stress transmission. Our results suggest that there is a significant impact of financial stress in developed countries on the output of emerging ones. However we can observe an increasing influence of country-specific factors in explaining the variation in the rest of the variable of our model. The results also indicate the level of international financial...
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On the Role of Exogenous Shocks in the Great Recession: the Evidence from Belarus
Ramanchyk, Nina ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Polyák, Oliver (referee)
In this thesis we provide evidence about the relative importance of foreign (Russian) and domestic monetary policy shocks for Belarusian economy. We employ a ten variable structural VAR model with block exogeneity and a set of dummy variables introduced to deal with instability of the data that corresponds to the periods of crises (2008 and 2011). We find that Belarus is significantly influenced by foreign shocks that account for 20 to 60 percent of fluctuations in domestic variables in the long run. The foreign demand and oil prices for Belarus are the main determinants of the domestic output and net export, while the foreign interest rate strongly affects Belarusian interest rate, money demand and the share of loans in GDP. Regarding the domestic monetary shocks, we find that the exchange rate is the most important channel in the Belarusian monetary transmission mechanism. We conclude that deeper trade integration with Russia could be beneficial for Belarusian economy, while in case of the monetary union creation the conduct of an independent monetary policy in Belarus could be further complicated.
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(How) Does low inflation in euro area affect inflation in the Czech Republic?
Veselý, Vladimír ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.
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(How) Does low inflation in euro area affect inflation in the Czech Republic?
Veselý, Vladimír ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to identify domestic and foreign shocks that mostly explain variation in the Czech price level. This goal is accomplished by the use of structural vector autoregression. As the Czech Republic is considered to be a small open economy, it is crucial to include foreign variables into the model which are represented by shocks in euro zone. Furthermore, a block exogeneity restriction is imposed because it is unlikely that shocks in the Czech economy can influence macroeconomic development in euro zone. The results of the thesis indicate that foreign shocks explain 70% variability in Czech price level out of which 50% is explained by euro zone's price level shocks. It is likely that in near future Czech economy will experience deflation for a while. Nevertheless, by 2018 Czech inflation rate should be in 1-3% band.
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On the Role of Exogenous Shocks in the Great Recession: the Evidence from Belarus
Ramanchyk, Nina ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Polyák, Oliver (referee)
In this thesis we provide evidence about the relative importance of foreign (Russian) and domestic monetary policy shocks for Belarusian economy. We employ a ten variable structural VAR model with block exogeneity and a set of dummy variables introduced to deal with instability of the data that corresponds to the periods of crises (2008 and 2011). We find that Belarus is significantly influenced by foreign shocks that account for 20 to 60 percent of fluctuations in domestic variables in the long run. The foreign demand and oil prices for Belarus are the main determinants of the domestic output and net export, while the foreign interest rate strongly affects Belarusian interest rate, money demand and the share of loans in GDP. Regarding the domestic monetary shocks, we find that the exchange rate is the most important channel in the Belarusian monetary transmission mechanism. We conclude that deeper trade integration with Russia could be beneficial for Belarusian economy, while in case of the monetary union creation the conduct of an independent monetary policy in Belarus could be further complicated.
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Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries
Gavrilenco, Nicolae ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
Charles University in Prague Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER THESIS Financial Stress Transmission from Developed to Emerging Countries Author: Bc. Nicolae Gavrilenco Supervisor: doc. Roman Horvàth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2012/2013 Abstract In this research we have analyzed the financial system as it is today, describing the implications financial innovation had and the impact of the recent financial crisis. We tried to understand the nature of the financial stress and its measures. In the context of world financial integration it was also necessary to have a review upon the financial stress transmission channels from developed to emerging countries, determining the linkages and their measures. We employed a structural VAR model to determine whether there is empirical proof of financial Stress transmission from developed to emerging countries and see if financial integration represents the decisive factor in financial stress transmission. Our results suggest that there is a significant impact of financial stress in developed countries on the output of emerging ones. However we can observe an increasing influence of country-specific factors in explaining the variation in the rest of the variable of our model. The results also indicate the level of international financial...
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Terms of trade: impact on the czech international trade and economic growth in 2005 - 2015
Dulovec, Adam ; Zamrazilová, Eva (advisor) ; Šimíček, Petr (referee)
The thesis is focused on the changes in the terms of trade in Czech international trade in the term of from 2005 to 2015, as the period after the Czech Republic joined the European Union. The terms of trade are an important indicator of the benefits and loses of international trade. The main aim is to analyze the changes of terms of trade, the causes of their changes, and the impact on the real economy. The direction of the overall terms of trade index was highly unsettled, and did not actually generated additional gains in the economy not over the reporting period. The overall terms of trades were most influenced by the price development of two groups of the Standard International Trade Classification, Crude materials and lubricants, and machinery and transport equipment. The prices of Crude materials and lubricants are determined mainly by changes in the oil prices. These were very volatile in the reporting period, the especially the collapse of the prices in both 2009 and 2014-2015, had a significant impact on the import prices of the Czech economy. The thesis also analyzes the impact of exchange rate on the international trade prices, in the period since November 2013, i.e. after the Czech National Bank has committed to maintain the rate of Czech koruna against the Euro above the level of 27 CZK/EUR, which helped to protect the economy from deflations and enhance the economic growth. The effect of the weak crown, that favored the Czech exporters, however a faded over time.
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The Eurozone and small open economies from the perspective of the Optimum Currency Area Theory
Bodnár, Juraj ; Šíma, Ondřej (advisor) ; Pour, Jiří (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the existing knowledge about the theory of optimum currency areas and assess the euro area and selected small open economies in terms of this theory. In addition to traditional forms of OCA theory has profiled endogeneity theory, which allows fulfillment of OCA criteria ex post. The opposite approach is formulated in the hypothesis of specialization by P. Krugman. In the thesis I found out that the Eurozone is not an optimal currency area according the fulfillment of criteria of the OCA theory. Another observation is that a small open economy has limited opportunities to conduct independent monetary policy, what makes its membership in the monetary union in the long term necessary. However, its membership has some drawbacks especially that the exchange rate fluctuates according the fundamentals of the big economies (members of monetary union). Furthermore, I have found out by comparing the macroeconomic indicators of individual countries, that the membership of small open economies in the euro area is appropriate, but it has some risks. In the thesis, I also found out that small countries (especially microstates) should specialized in export of services - tourism, financial and administrative services.
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Bayesovský odhad DSGE modelů
Bouda, Milan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
Thesis is dedicated to Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models. Firstly, the history of DSGE modeling is outlined as well as development of this macroeconometric field in the Czech Republic and in the rest of the world. Secondly, the comprehensive DSGE framework is described in detail. It means that everyone is able to specify or estimate arbitrary DSGE model according to this framework. Thesis contains two empirical studies. The first study describes derivation of the New Keynesian DSGE Model and its estimation using Bayesian techniques. This model is estimated with three different Taylor rules and the best performing Taylor rule is identified using the technique called Bayesian comparison. The second study deals with development of the Small Open Economy Model with housing sector. This model is based on previous study which specifies this model as a closed economy model. I extended this model by open economy features and government sector. Czech Republic is generally considered as a small open economy and these extensions make this model more applicable to this economy. Model contains two types of households. The first type of consumers is able to access the capital markets and they can smooth consumption across time by buying or selling financial assets. These households follow the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). The other type of household uses rule of thumb (ROT) consumption, spending all their income to consumption. Other agents in this economy are specified in standard way. Outcomes of this study are mainly focused on behavior of house prices. More precisely, it means that all main outputs as Bayesian impulse response functions, Bayesian prediction and shock decomposition are focused mainly on this variable. At the end of this study one macro-prudential experiment is performed. This experiment comes up with answer on the following question: is the higher/lower Loan to Value (LTV) ratio better for the Czech Republic? This experiment is very conclusive and shows that level of LTV does not affect GDP. On the other hand, house prices are very sensitive to this LTV ratio. The recommendation for the Czech National Bank could be summarized as follows. In order to keep house prices less volatile implement rather lower LTV ratio than higher.
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Exchange rate during crisis
Tran Thi, Anh Phuong ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Rusmichová, Lada (referee)
The aim of this thesis analysis of exchange rates development during financial crisis of 2008 in the case of selected currency pairs. The thesis is focused primarily on empirical analysis of exchange rate movements in small open economies, namely the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The theoretical part is devoted to balance of payments, exchange rate theories and economic crises 2008. The analytical part is devoted to the effects of major macroeconomic indicators on exchange rate development and empirical verification of major fundamental theories of exchange rate. The work explores the possible causes of fluctuations in exchange rates during recent crisis and their impact on the real economy.
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